I changed my mind about carbon markets

August 11, 2021

One of my favorite questions is “What have you changed your mind about in the last year?” In a fast growing industry this question is tool to cut loose from assumptions and keep moving. I asked this to Liz, Shuchi, and Julio at the VERGE Net Zero conference, and here's my own answer:

What I changed my mind about: Carbon removal credits (video version of this note here)

What I used to think

We need to get to large scale carbon removal, but a carbon tax or carbon removal credits are a non-starter.
Because of that, I went all in on carbon utilization. Better, faster, stronger products are the only ones that have potential
Everything carbon removal markets related, as needed as it seemed, just seemed impossible. Governments wouldn't fund it, corporations wouldn't fund it.

What changed:

Governments started funding carbon removal: DOE/ARPA-E investing millions, $3.2B proposed in USA Infrastructure bill
Corporations started buying carbon removal (Microsoft, Stripe, Shopify, South Pole + Mitsubishi aiming towards $1B)

Now I think

Carbon markets are where the funding is going for early startup companies
Are the millions going into carbon removal credits going to prop up gigaton scale carbon removal? Certainly not, but it's a good start.
A carbon tax still seems unlikely, but not impossible, and may be our best avenue to reach large scale carbon removal
Making stuff out of carbon dioxide is no longer the only option for startup business models

That's what I changed my mind about in last year. Taking a holistic view to figuring out how to take carbon out of the atmosphere, and adjusting what I think as the market develops.

What have you changed your mind about in the last year?

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