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I changed my mind about carbon markets

August 11, 2021

One of my favorite questions is “What have you changed your mind about in the last year?” In a fast growing industry this question is tool to cut loose from assumptions and keep moving. I asked this to Liz, Shuchi, and Julio at the VERGE Net Zero conference, and here's my own answer:

What I changed my mind about: Carbon removal credits (video version of this note here)

What I used to think

• We need to get to large scale carbon removal, but a carbon tax or carbon removal credits are a non-starter. 
• Because of that, I went all in on carbon utilization. Better, faster, stronger products are the only ones that have potential
• Everything carbon removal markets related, as needed as it seemed, just seemed impossible. Governments wouldn't fund it, corporations wouldn't fund it.

What changed:

• Governments started funding carbon removal: DOE/ARPA-E investing millions, $3.2B proposed in USA Infrastructure bill
• Corporations started buying carbon removal (Microsoft, Stripe, Shopify, South Pole + Mitsubishi aiming towards $1B)

Now I think

• Carbon markets are where the funding is going for early startup companies
• Are the millions going into carbon removal credits going to prop up gigaton scale carbon removal? Certainly not, but it's a good start.
• A carbon tax still seems unlikely, but not impossible, and may be our best avenue to reach large scale carbon removal
• Making stuff out of carbon dioxide is no longer the only option for startup business models

That's what I changed my mind about in last year. Taking a holistic view to figuring out how to take carbon out of the atmosphere, and adjusting what I think as the market develops.

What have you changed your mind about in the last year?

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