Over the last couple weeks, we've talked about progress in carbon removal. That meant tracking deliveries and data so we can measure our progress.

What I want to talk about today is what's at the other end. What's the goal that we're all headed for? (Video on LinkedIn and YouTube)

I've seen a bunch of discussion about this recently, about what the goal is given everything that's happening in carbon removal.

First off, I'm going to share the questions that I find useful to align my own thinking, and then I'm going to share thoughts on the goal.

You might remember some of these questions:

1. Is the climate changing?

2. Is it caused by humans?

3. Is the impact big?

4. Can we do anything about it?

5. Is decarbonization enough? (Or do we need carbon removal too?)

Now, when you're talking to people who are already working on carbon removal solutions, everybody's usually on the same page about those first couple questions.

But where I often and more recently find that people aren't on the same page is this next one:

6. How much carbon needs to be removed and by when.

7. Where does carbon removal need to be by 2030?

Here's where my head is at on these things, and afterwards, I want to hear from you about how you think about this.

For me, I'm here for climate impact, for a stable climate, and a thriving human civilization. Staying below two degrees of warming is really important towards that.

And from the IPCC, we get this 2050 model of net zero plus 10 billion tons per year of carbon dioxide removal. Then my answer to the question, how much and by when, is 10 billion tons per year by 2050.

Next question, where do we need to be by 2030? I use the Rocky Mountain Institute / Bezos Earth Fund report. It's this S-curve model showing that to be on track for 10 billion tons by 2050 then we need to be at 285 million tons per year of removal by 2030 (page 24).

And I mapped out that if we triple carbon removal every year from 2024 to 2030, then we hit that (1M in 2024, 3M in 2025, 9M in 2026, 27M in 2027 (nice), 81M in 2028, 243M in 2029).

Tripling every year is an incredible amount of growth for an industry. If you look at industries like computing or biotech, for example Moore's Law is something like 41% year-over-year growth. We're talking about 300% year-over-year growth rate.

I can totally imagine you saying, "you know, that's just totally bananas, right? We're never gonna be able to pull that off."

Well, we have seen during short bursts, incredible growth rates, incredible innovation. I think about the moon landing, multiple industries, all coming to life, all growing extremely quickly, bringing together everybody under that tent and having them work together. Same thing with coming together during World War II. And that's what I'm pointing towards.

It is NOT reasonable.

It's needed.

It's doable.

And that is how I think about carbon removal.

Here's my questions for you - hit reply!

• What's your carbon removal goal: How much carbon dioxide removal and by when?

• Where do we need to be by 2030 to be on track for that goal?

• Whatever your goal is, what if we only get 10% of the way there? Is that a success? Is that a failure? (for example, if your goal is 10 gigatons by 2050, what about 1 gigaton per year in 2050?)

Maybe you're reading this and you're like, "I am heads doing my carbon removal thing right now, don't get me started on these big picture things." I hear you. I encourage you to give a shot. It can really help to align your own thinking day to day. And if you're really clear about what your goal is for the end of the six months or this year, I'd love to hear about that too.

Hit reply. And I really look forward to hearing how you think about these carbon removal goals.

Tito